长江经济带铁路运输效率与经济发展的空间关系研究

Spatial Relationship between Railway Transport Efficiency and Economic Development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

随着国家运输结构调整和“公转铁”的不断推进,长江经济带铁路运输效率与经济发展的关系成为目前关注的重点。选取长江经济带11个省(市)2010—2019年的面板数据,运用含非期望产出的超效率SBM模型测算铁路运输效率,建立空间自回归模型探究铁路运输效率与经济发展之间的空间相关性,并对长江经济带铁路运输发展提出相关建议。结果表明:对长江经济带某一省(市)来说,当长江经济带整体铁路运输效率平均上升1%,则其人均GDP上升0.504 7%;当这一省(市)铁路运输效率上升1%,则其人均GDP上升0.187 2%;当长江经济带除此省(市)外其他省(市)铁路运输效率平均上升1%,则其人均GDP上升0.317 4%;其间接效应比直接效应更加明显,空间溢出效应显著。

With the adjustment of the national transportation structure and the continuous promotion of the transportation mode shifting from roads to railways, the relationship between railway transport efficiency and economic development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt has become the focus of attention. The panel data of 11 provinces(cities) in the economic belt from 2010 to 2019 were selected to calculate railway transport efficiency by using the super-efficiency SBM model containing the unexpected output. This paper built a spatial autoregression model to explore the spatial correlation between railway transport efficiency and economic development and put forward relevant suggestions for railway transport development in the economic belt. The results show that for a province(city) in the economic belt,when the overall railway transport efficiency in the economic belt is enhanced by 1% on average, its per capita GDP increases by 0.504 7%. When the railway transport efficiency of this province(city) is raised by 1%, its per capita GDP increases by 0.187 2%. When the railway transport efficiency of other provinces(cities) in the economic belt rises by 1%on average, its per capita GDP grows by 0.317 4%. The indirect effect is more obvious than the direct effect, and the spatial spillover effect is significant.