摘要
2020年初春,新冠肺炎疫情席卷中国,虽然现在疫情已经逐渐平息,但是利用数学模型去描述疫情的传播规律可以为今后的公共卫生管理积累相关经验。根据新冠肺炎的传播特性,为更贴近现实,提出一种引入时滞因素变量的分数阶传播模型,在建立模型的基础上,首先计算模型的基本再生数R0,以及分析模型的无病平衡点和地方病平衡点,并对模型在考虑时滞条件下的局部渐进稳定性进行分析,通过模拟证明该模型对疫情防控的指导意义和基本再生数这一指标的重要性,为更好地防控疫情,通常需要采取措施力求将R0保持在1以下。
In the early spring of 2020,the COVID-19 swept across China.Although the epidemic has gradually subsided,using mathematical models to describe the spread of the epidemic can accumulate relevant experience for future public health management.According to the propagation characteristics of COVID-19,According to the propagation characteristics of COVID-19,in order to be closer to reality,a fractional order propagation model with time-delay factor variables is proposed.On the basis of establishing the model,first calculate the basic reproduction number R0of the model,and analyze the disease free equilibrium point and endemic equilibrium point of the model,and analyze the local asymptotic stability of the model under the condition of considering the time-delay.Through simulation,the guiding significance of the model for epidemic prevention and control is proved,It has proved the importance of the basic regeneration number.In order to better prevent and control the epidemic,it is usually necessary to take measures to keep the R0below 1.
出处
《科技创新与应用》
2023年第5期1-4,共4页
Technology Innovation and Application
