综合国力视角下的国家经济实力与美欧制裁对俄经济实力影响评估

National Economic Power from the Perspective of Comprehensive National Strength and An Evaluation of Western Sanctions on Russia’s Economic Power

乌克兰危机升级背景下,美欧对俄实施的大规模极限制裁的影响和效果备受关注。评估制裁对俄罗斯经济实力的影响,需要准确理解全球竞争力、综合国力、国家经济实力等概念的内涵和适用性,弄清这些概念的界定逻辑和应用场景。国家经济实力是综合国力的初始权力资源,可以通过国家政治实力外化为国家外交和军事实力。全球竞争力概念不适用于评估大国竞争。美欧对俄实施的大规模极限制裁,其目标既包括制造危机和推动权力更迭的战役级目标,也包括削弱俄罗斯综合国力的战略级目标,还包括打击特定领域能力的战术级目标,这些目标可以随机转换。评估结果表明,在国家经济实力的四个维度中制裁对俄罗斯的国家生存能力基本不产生影响,但其发展能力、对外影响力和外部强制力都被削弱。

National economic power,initial power resource for comprehensive national strength,may switch into diplomatic and military strength via political power.It is necessary to introduce a series of concepts in order to evaluate the impact of western sanctions imposed on Russia’s economic power.The extreme sanctions imposed on Russia include campaign level objectives of causing crisis and pushing for the change of power,strategic goals of undermining Russia’s comprehensive national strength,and tactical targets of striking Russia’s capability in specific areas.The result of this evaluation indicates that Russia’s national surviving capability has not been affected;however,the country’s development ability,external influence,and external coercive force have been undermined.