海南自贸港金融服务实体经济效率的时空异质性及其驱动机理

Spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the efficiency of financial services for the real economy and driving mechanism in the Hainan Free Trade Port

提升金融服务实体经济效率是海南自贸港建设亟待研究和突破的“靶点”。论文通过测算2011—2020年海南自贸港18市县金融服务实体经济效率,利用Dagum基尼系数与Kernel密度估计方法刻画效率的时空异质性,并借助随机森林模型揭示其驱动机理,创新性地从时空视角挖掘海南自贸港金融服务实体经济效率分异机制。研究发现:①海南自贸港金融服务实体经济效率时空非平衡性明显,时序上阶段性显著,空间上呈西高东低、高值聚集、中部“洼地”的分布特征,西北部市县与中部市县各自逐步形成高值、低值聚集区;②总体及沿海市县梯度分化特征逐步加强,而非沿海市县内部差距则逐步缩小,沿海区域金融服务实体经济效率的空间分异是总体分异的主要来源;③政府干预是效率分化的主导因素,含金融集聚度在内的影响因素对效率均呈非线性影响且作用趋势与阈值各异,各因素的边际产出能力及各市县对要素的吸收与应用能力的动态差异是时空异质性的主要来源。研究结论可为优化海南自贸港金融资源的空间配置、提升金融服务实体经济效率提供科学依据。

Improving the efficiency of financial services for the real economy is the"target"that needs to be studied in the construction of the Hainan Free Trade Port.By measuring the efficiency of financial services for the real economy in 18 cities and counties of the Hainan Free Trade Port from 2011 to 2020,this study used the Dagum Gini coefficient and kernel density estimation to characterize the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of efficiency,examined its driving mechanism with the help of the random forest model,and revealed the spatiotemporal differentiation mechanism of the efficiency of financial services for the real economy in the Hainan Free Trade Port.The research results indicate that:1)The efficiency of financial services for the real economy in the Hainan Free Trade Port showed obvious temporal and spatial imbalances,with significant phases in the time series.The spatial distribution of efficiency showed a pattern of high in the west and low in the east,high value clustering,and a"depression"in the central area.2)The differentiation of the overall efficiency and efficiency in coastal cities and counties gradually strengthened,while the gap within the non-coastal cities and counties gradually narrowed.The spatial differentiation of the efficiency of financial services for the real economy in coastal regions was the main source of the overall differentiation.3)Government intervention was the leading factor for efficiency differentiation.The influencing factors,including financial agglomeration,have a nonlinear influence on efficiency,the trends and thresholds of effects are different,and the marginal output capacity of each factor and the dynamic difference of the absorption and application capacity of the factors in various cities and counties are the main sources of spatiotemporal heterogeneity.The results provide some scientific basis for optimizing the spatial allocation of financial resources in the Hainan Free Trade Port and improving the efficiency of financial services for the real economy.