“双碳”目标下我国煤炭减量化使用的压力指数测度研究

Research on the Pressure Index Measurement of China’s Coal Reduction Under the“Double Carbon”Target

煤炭是我国能源供给的主体品种,煤炭使用是我国碳排放的主要来源,在双碳目标和能源保供给的双重约束下,煤炭减量化使用很迫切,但会给国民经济带来较大的压力。本文通过修正的等方差加权法测度我国30个省(区、市)煤炭减量化使用的压力。在全国层面的分析中,本文基于ARIMA模型与ARMA-EGARCH(1,1)模型,得到了煤炭减量化使用压力指数在2021~2035年有下降的趋势,且煤炭波动的风险处于可控范围的结论;在地区视角下的研究区域层面的分析中,本文基于ARIMA模型与灰色关联度模型,得到了煤炭减量化使用压力指数的变化趋势存在地区间、地区与全国层面的异质性,在2014年后异质性逐步降低,在2021年后异质性变化将进一步平稳等结论。应坚持“先立后破”的能源转型思路,大规模发展可再生能源,为煤炭减量化使用创造宽松的外部经济环境;要积极赋能煤资源型地区和煤炭企业进行自我转型,降低煤资源型地区的减煤压力。

Coal is the main type of energy supply in China,and the use of coal is the main source of carbon emissions in China.Under the dual constraints of the dual-carbon target and energy supply guarantee,the use of coal reduction is very urgent,but it will bring greater pressure to the national economy.This paper measures the pressure of coal reduction use in 30 provinces(cities and autonomous regions)in China through the modified equal variance weighted method.In the analysis at the national level,based on ARIMA model and ARMA-EGARCH(1,1)model,this paper draws the conclusion that the pressure index of coal reduction has a downward trend in 2021~2035,and the risk of coal fluctuation is in a controllable range.In the analysis at the regional level of the study from the regional perspective,based on the ARIMA model and the grey correlation model,this paper draws the conclusion that the change trend of the pressure index of coal reduction has heterogeneity at the regional,regional and national levels,and the heterogeneity will gradually decrease after 2014,and the heterogeneity change will be further stable after 2021.We should adhere to the energy transformation idea of“first establish and then break”,develop renewable energy on a large scale,and create a loose external economic environment for the reduction of coal use.We should actively empower coal resource-based areas and coal enterprises to carry out self-transformation and reduce the pressure of coal reduction in coal resource-based areas.