中国包容性增长的时空演化及空间收敛研究

Research on the Spatio-temporal Evolution and Spatial Convergence of Inclusive Growth in China

本文测算了2003~2020年30个省(区、市)的包容性增长指数,运用核密度估计、Dagum基尼系数及分解、Moran’s I指数、σ收敛、空间β收敛等方法分析了包容性增长的时空演变、区域差异和收敛性特征。研究发现:全国和三大区域的包容性增长水平总体提升,但在2017年后大部分省(区、市)遇到瓶颈期。三大地区间差异是总体差异的主要来源,东部地区的包容性增长水平大幅领先于中、西部地区。包容性增长存在显著的空间正相关,全国和三大区域的包容性增长具有明显的空间β收敛特征。本文基于包容性增长的内涵和中国的发展愿景,更新了研究视角和指标体系,使用空间模型进行了收敛分析,有利于深入理解中国包容性增长的发展脉络和特征,对促进机会公平、推动包容性增长具有积极的现实意义。

This paper calculates the inclusive growth index of 30 provinces from 2003 to 2020,using nuclear density estimation,Dagum Gini coefficient and decomposition,Moran’s I indexσConvergence,spaceβConvergence and other methods analyze the space-time evolution,regional differences and convergence characteristics of inclusive growth.The study finds that the inclusive growth level of the whole country and the three major regions has generally improved,but most provinces have encountered a bottleneck period after 2017.The differences among the three regions are the main source of the overall differences.The inclusive growth level of the eastern region is significantly higher than that of the central and western regions.There is significant positive spatial correlation between inclusive growth,and there is significant space for inclusive growth across the country and three regionsβConvergence characteristics.Based on the connotation of inclusive growth and China’s development vision,this paper updates the research perspective and indicator system,and uses the spatial model for convergence analysis,which is conducive to in-depth understanding of the development context and characteristics of inclusive growth in China,and has positive practical significance for promoting equity of opportunity and promoting inclusive growth.