多浪羊生长曲线拟合研究

Study on Growth Curve Fitting of Duolang Sheep

为探讨多浪羊的生长发育规律,本研究采用Gompertz、Logistic、Von Bertalanffy三种非线性模型拟合分析1~12月龄不同性别多浪羊体重发育特征。结果表明,三种模型的拟合度(R2)均在0.98以上,均能较好地拟合多浪羊体重生长曲线。其中,Gompertz、Logistic和Von Bertalanffy三种非线性模型对多浪公羊体重的R2分别为0.9927、0.9848和0.9951,拐点月龄分别为3.3473月、4.5542月和2.6690月,拐点体重分别为24.8355 kg、31.1050 kg和21.1348 kg,Gompertz模型估计值更接近观测值,因此Gompertz模型能更好地拟合多浪公羊体重。三种非线性模型对多浪母羊体重的R2分别为0.9922、0.9844和0.9946,拐点月龄分别为3.6526月、4.8424月和2.9689月,拐点体重分别为25.3543 kg、31.3200 kg和21.8133 kg,Von Bertalanffy模型R2均大于Gompertz和Logistic模型,且其估计值更接近观测值,因此Von Bertalanffy模型能更好地拟合多浪母羊体重。

In order to explore the growth and development law of Duolang sheep, Gompertz, Logistic and Von Bertalanffy were used to fit and analyze the body weight development characteristics of Duolang sheep aged from 1 to 12 months. The results showed that the fitting degree(R~2) of the three models were all above 0.98,which could fit the body weight growth curve well. Among them, the R~2of Gompertz, Logistic and Von Bertalanffy nonlinear models for Duolang ram body weight were 0.9927, 0.9848 and 0.9951, respectively,and the ages of inflection point were 3.3473, 4.5542 and 2.6690 months, respectively, and the inflection point weights were 24.8355, 31.1050 and 21.1348 kg, respectively. The estimated value of Gompertz model was closer to the observed value, so the Gompertz model could better fit the weight of Duolang ram. The R~2of the three nonlinear models for the body weight of Duolang ewes were 0.9922, 0.9844 and 0.9946,respectively, the age of the inflection point were 3.6526, 4.8424 and 2.9689 months, respectively, the body weight at the inflection point were 25.3543, 31.3200 and 21.8133 kg, respectively. The R~2of Von Bertalanffy model was larger than that of Gompertz and Logistic model, and its estimated value was closer to the observed value. Therefore, the Von Bertalanffy model could be used to predict the body weight of Duolang ewes.