江苏省绿色低碳发展的形势研判和路径初探

Research on the situation and path of green and low-carbon development in Jiangsu Province

推动绿色低碳发展是国际潮流所向、大势所趋,绿色经济已成为全球产业竞争制高点。江苏省人多地少、产业规模大、能源约束强,生态环境的综合性、复杂性和严峻性问题突出,是经济大省、资源小省,以绿色低碳发展为突破,率先实现高质量发展代表性强、意义重大。选取了能源产出率、建成区产出率、水资源产出率和PM2.5浓度这4项资源环境指标,通过与发达国家、兄弟省市资源环境之间的对比分析,找准江苏省绿色低碳发展的目标;梳理江苏省绿色低碳发展现状,利用压力—状态—响应法分析得出江苏省绿色低碳发展的困境,并预测未来十年江苏省资源环境指标的变化趋势,规划适合江苏省推进绿色低碳发展的路径。研究结果表明,2020年江苏能源产出率为0.407万$/t标煤,占美国能源产出率(0.697万$/t标煤)58.3%,占日本能源产出率(0.862万$/t标煤)47.2%,占英国能源产出率(1.123万$/t标煤)36.2%。未来5-10年江苏省将处于绿色低碳发展的攻坚阶段,总体趋于改善、局部存在恶化风险,需要分阶段、强弱项、分步骤、全过程推进绿色低碳发展:第一阶段补齐生态环境短板,实现基于常规监测指标的生态环境质量全局改善;第二阶段树立绿色发展方式,建成绿色低碳循环的经济发展体系;第三阶段对标国际先进,实现环境治理能力现代化。

Promoting green and low-carbon development is the direction of the international trend and the general trend.The green economy has become the commanding height of global industrial competition.Jiangsu Province has a large population and small land,a large industrial scale,strong energy constraints,and prominent comprehensive,complex and severe ecological environment problems.The development is highly representative and of great significance.Four resources and environmental indicators,namely energy output rate,built-up area output rate,water resource output rate and PM2.5concentration are selected,identify the goal of green and low-carbon development in Jiangsu Province through comparative analysis of resources and environments with developed countries,brother provinces and cities.To sort out the status quo of green and low-carbon development in Jiangsu Province,use the pressure-state-response method to analyze the dilemma of green and low-carbon development in Jiangsu Province,and predict the changing trend of resources and environmental indicators in Jiangsu Province in the next ten years.The plan is suitable for Jiangsu Province to promote green and low-carbon development path.The research results show that,in 2020,Jiangsu’s energy output rate was 40700USD/t standard coalce,accounting for 58.3% of the US’s energy output rate(69700 USD/t standard coalce),47.2% of the Japanese energy output rate(86200 USD/t standard coalce),and the UK’s energy output rate(112300 USD/t standard coalce)is 36.2%.In the next 5 to 10 years,Jiangsu Province will be in the critical stage of green and low-carbon development.The overall tendency is to improve,and there is a risk of local deterioration.It is necessary to promote green and low-carbon development in stages,strengths and weaknesses,steps,and the whole process.In the first stage,the short-comings of the ecological environment will be made up,and the overall improvement of the ecological environment quality based on conventional monitoring indicators will be realized.In the second stage,a green development mode and a green,low-carbon and circular economic development system will be established.In the thrid stage,governance capabilities are modernized.