基于TDOGM(1,N)灰色模型的高校科研能力预测与滞后效应分析

Prediction and Lag Effect Analysis of Scientific Research Ability in Colleges and Universities Based on TDOGM(1,N)Grey Model

针对高校人才、经费、平台等科研资源投入与科研产出存在的不平衡现象,提出利用带时滞效应的TDOGM(1,N)灰色模型,对在一定的资源投入下,高校科研能力未来发展趋势进行预测,为高校科学配置投入资源、有效评价科研投入效率提供理论基础。通过研究发现,利用带时滞效应的TDOGM(1,N)灰色模型进行投入与产出关系分析、预测,其精度比传统的OGM(1,N)灰色模型高。同时,预测模型还能充分反映其核心要素存在的滞后效应。

Aiming at the imbalance between the scientific research resources input such as talents,funds,platforms and scientific research output in colleges and universities,and combining the advantages of grey theory in the analysis,prediction,decision making and control of uncertain systems with"small samples and poor information",TDOGM(1,N)grey model with a time lag effect is proposed to analyze the relationship between the input and output of scientific research and forecast the future development trend of scientific research capability in colleges and universities,so as to deeply explore the main behavioral characteristics of research capability,key factors affecting its quality improvement and specific effects,and provide a theoretical basis for scientific allocation of input resources and effective evaluation of input resources efficiency.Through research,it is found that TDOGM(1,N)grey model with time lag effect is more accurate than the traditional OGM(1,N)grey model in analyzing and predicting the relationship between input and output.At the same time,the prediction model can also fully reflect the lag effect of its core elements.For different types of colleges and universities,the research output quasi-superior performance characteristics are different,and the influencing factors are not consistent.However,the full-time equivalent of R&D personnel and the expenditure of research funds have a relatively large impact on the output of research results.