珠江流域水资源承载力评价及风险识别

Assessment and Risk Identification of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in the Pearl River Basin

以珠江流域为研究对象,基于2018年水资源公报、统计年鉴数据,从水资源、社会、经济、生态环境等四方面选取13项指标,构建水资源承载力评价指标体系,采用组合赋权的TOPSIS模型对流域内46个城市进行水资源承载力评价分析,并用热点分析方法识别流域内水资源承载高风险区域。结果表明:流域整体水资源承载指数为0.504,水资源承载力级别为2级,流域整体水资源承载状态一般。流域各区域水资源承载状况差异显著,总体呈现中上游区域优于上游、中下游区域的空间格局,其中珠江三角洲区域面临较大的水资源承载压力。流域水资源承载状况分布具有高度集聚态势,流域绝大部份区域水资源承载力风险不显著,深圳市、东莞市、广州市、佛山市、中山市等5个城市处于热点-99%置信程度区间,为水资源承载力高风险区域,均集中在珠江三角洲区域。

Taking the Pearl River Basin as the research object,this paper builds an evaluation index system for water resources carrying capacity with 13 indexes selected from four aspects of water resources,society,economy,and the ecological environment by using the data in the water resources bulletin and statistical yearbook of the year 2018.The technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS)model integrated with combined weighting is used to evaluate and analyze the water resources carrying capacity of 46 cities in the basin.The hot spot analysis method is employed to identify the high-risk areas of water resources carrying capacity there.The results show that the overall water resources carrying index of the basin is 0.504,and the water resources carrying capacity is at Level 2,reflecting the moderate overall water resources carrying status of the basin.There are significant differences in water resources carrying capacity among different regions in the basin.On the whole,the middle-upper reaches of the basin have better carrying capacity than the upper and middle-lower reaches.The Pearl River Delta region is facing great water resources carrying capacity pressure.The distribution of water resources carrying capacity is highly concentrated in the basin.The risk of water resources carrying capacity is not significant in most regions of the basin.Five cities,including Shenzhen,Dongguan,Guangzhou,Foshan,and Zhongshan,are in the hot spot range(99%confidence level).They are high-risk areas of water resources carrying capacity,all concentrated in the Pearl River Delta region.