新美国安全中心研究者的决策影响力评估

An Influence Assessment of CNAS Researchers on Decision Making

[目的/意义]新美国安全中心在美国对华决策中的影响力不断增强,多位研究者出任拜登政府国家安全委员会、国务院和国防部等核心部门的高级官员,成为美国对华政策的具体实施者。如何评估该智库研究者的影响力,成为一项有现实意义的问题。[方法/过程]在数据库的帮助下,结合定性和定量的研究方法,通过对2015—2021年该智库对中国研究的重要研究者及其成果进行统计分析,对该智库研究者的影响力进行评估。[结果/结论]研究发现,该智库研究者在国会的证词与此后美国出台的对华政策有一定的吻合度和相关性,这为把握美国智库与政府对华决策之间的互动关系,研判美国对华政策下一步的走向和趋势提供有益的视角和方法。

[Purpose/significance]Center for a New American Security(CNAS)has been increasingly influential in US policy toward China.Several researchers have taken office as senior officials in important departments such as the National Security Council,the State Department and the Department of Defense under the Biden administration,and have become practitioners of the US policy toward China.How to evaluate the influence of the think tank researchers has become an issue of practical significance.[Method/process]With the assistance of the database and the combination of qualitative and quantitative research methods,this paper conducts statistical analysis on the important researchers and their products in the think tank’s China studies from 2015 to 2021,so as to evaluate the influence of the think tank researchers.[Result/conclusion]Through the research,it is found that there is a certain degree of consistency and correlation between the testimony of the think tank researcher in Congress and the US policy toward China,which provides a useful perspective and method for grasping the interactive relationship between the American think tanks and the government’s China policy,and studying the next direction and trend of the US policy toward China.