搬迁扶贫对代际流动的长期影响

The Long-run Effects of Poverty Alleviation Resettlement on Intergenerational Mobility

本文基于1994年的一个准自然实验和跨长时期的追溯数据,分析了搬迁扶贫对代际流动的长期影响。我们发现,搬迁加速了代际流动;提高了中低收入阶层代际向上流动的概率和收入排序;促进了高收入阶层代际向下流动;对于中等收入群体的影响呈现向上和向下的两级分化。搬迁扶贫对女性和迁移距离较远的中低收入群体的影响更大。搬迁导致的人力资本和社会资本变化是影响代际流动的重要机制。

Using a quasi-natural experiment in 1994, we investigate the long-run effects of poverty alleviation resettlement on intergenerational mobility. We find that the resettlement has increased the probability of upward mobility for low-and middle-income groups. The impact on girls is significantly bigger than that on boys. The impact on low-and middle-income groups is bigger for the resettlement with longer distance. However, the resettlement significantly decreases the income ranking of high-income group and has a diverging effect on the middle-income group. Human capital and social capital changes induced by the resettlement are possible channels that affect intergenerational mobility.