第19届女篮世界杯制胜指标分析及对中国女篮的启示

An Analysis of the Winning Indicators of the 19th Women’s Basketball World Cup and Its Inspiration to China Women’s National Basketball Team

为了探究第19届女篮世界杯比赛中胜败与技战术指标的关系,分析中国女篮与其他球队在数据方面反映出的优劣比,本文选取第19届女篮世界杯全部38场比赛为对象开展研究。运用二元Logistic回归模型,将12支球队的18项技术指标作为自变量,比赛结果(胜败)作为因变量进行统计建模。结果显示:二分球命中次数、助攻、后场篮板、罚球次数这四项指标对比赛结果存在显著性影响,构成了第19届女篮世界杯比赛中的制胜指标。结论:(1)中国女篮在二分球命中次数、助攻、后场篮板均排在12支球队的第二名,但罚球次数仅排在第7名;(2)中国女篮各项数据指标总体排名靠前,但远低于一枝独秀的美国队,同时与澳大利亚、加拿大等世界强队差距微弱;(3)中国女篮中远投技术较强,但突破杀伤能力不足,同时无法适应和及时应对美国女篮等球队高强度的攻守方式,最终导致了队员的技术稳定性出现波动,如投篮出手次数减少、罚球次数变低、助攻失误增多。建议:(1)中国女篮应加强对抗下的基本技战术练习,着重在进攻回合数、投篮次数、篮板球卡位、制造罚球机会以及减少助攻失误上勤以打磨。(2)同时利用数据建模与现实结合,了解对手的制胜指标的具体表现,及时根据对手的球员轮转情况与各项基本数据变化来应对调整,从而为接下来的比赛做好铺垫与准备。

OBJECTIVE: The study explored match results in relation to the technical and tactical indicators in the 19th Women’s Basketball World Cup, analyzed the advantages and disadvantages of Chinese women’s national basketball team as shown in the statistics, and studied all the 38 matches in this World Cup. A binary logistic regression model was set up, with 18 technical indicators as independent variables, and competition results(win or loss)as dependent variables. RESULTS: The numbers of 2-point field goals, assists, defensive rebounds and free throws exert significant influence on the competition results and constitute the winning indicators of this World Cup. CONCLUSIONS:(1)Team China ranked second among the twelve teams in the numbers of 2-point field goals, assists and defensive rebounds, but the number of free throw attempts ranked seventh;(2)The statistics of Team China are generally among the first tier but far behind the US team. The gap between Team China and the world’s top teams such as Australia and Canada is narrow;(3)Team China has strong medium-and long-range shot skills, but its ability of breakthrough was not enough and it was unable to quickly respond to the highly intensive offense and defense of the US and other teams, which ultimately led to fluctuations in the stability of technical execution of the players, such as: fewer field goal attempts, fewer free throws, and more assist turnovers. SUGGESTIONS:(1)Team China should strengthen basic technical and tactical practice in competitions focus on increasing offensive rounds, field goal attempts and rebound box out, creating free throw opportunities, and reducing assist turnovers.(2)At the same time, Team China can use the combination of data modeling and reality to understand the specific performance of the opponent’s winning indicators, and promptly adjust according to the opponent’s player rotation and changes in basic data, so as to prepare well for the next game.