中心城市首位度对区域经济协调发展的影响研究——基于中国19个城市群的分析

A study on the influence of the first degree of central cities on the coordinated development of regional economy:Analysis based on nineteen large urban agglomerations in China

在2019年8月的中央财经委第五次会议上强调中心城市和城市群正在成为承载发展要素的主要空间形式,新形势下要促进区域协调发展,在发展中营造平衡。目前各地区以经济发展为核心目标所展开的城市首位度提升、强化中心城市作用的区域经济发展导向,究竟是会导致城中心城市形成对周边地区的虹吸效应,劣化区域的协调发展,还是会形成更强的龙头带动作用,扩大其辐射扩散范围,缩小地区内部的发展差距?研究针对性分析我国现阶段重要的空间形态——城市群,其中心城市首位度变化对区域整体经济增长及协调发展的影响。在理论层面,研究基于区域非均衡发展理论、城市最优规模倒U型模型对中心城市的集聚与扩散效应与区域协调发展的作用机制展开分析,构建形成中心城市首位度对区域经济协调发展的理论框架,分别从中心城市在集聚效应下对区域协调发展的抑制作用、中心城市在扩散效应下对区域协调发展的推进作用、中心城市不同首位度水平作用机制三个方面对中心城市首位度与区域经济发展不同阶段的变化及其内部作用机理展开分析。在实证层面,研究以中国十九大城市群为研究对象,利用2006—2017年中国十九大城市群面板数据展开固定效应分析,并通过内生性检验对模型内生性问题进行控制处理。为进一步探寻中心城市首位度对区域经济协调发展的非线性作用,研究进一步通过对政府战略规划引导及区域制度政策的交互效应模型、中心城市首位度分布识别以分析中心城市首位度对区域经济协调发展的影响以及政府战略规划、区域制度所产生的影响。研究发现:第一,中心城市首位度对经济增长起到倒U型的作用。第二,中心城市首位度对区域经济的协调发展呈现出正U型的作用。第三,国家中心城市政策的出现会进一步促使中心城市的虹吸效应,虽然行政分割并未影响到城市群整体的经济增长,但会导致城市群内部不同省域间城市的发展差距扩大。第四,我国沿海地区及中西部地区成熟的城市群应当积极提升中心城市首位度,中西部地区尚在培育、不成熟的城市群应当着力副中心城市、中小城市的建设发展,推动地区形成梯度化的城市群结构体系。

At the fifth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Committee of the Communist Party of China in August 2019,it is emphasized that central cities and urban agglomerations are becoming the main spatial forms that carry development elements.Under the new situation,it is necessary to promote coordinated regional development and create a balance in development.At present,the regional economic development orientation of increasing the primacy of cities and strengthening the role of central cities in various regions of China with economic development as the core goal will lead to the formation of the siphon effect of the central city on the surrounding areas,deteriorating the coordinated development of the region,or will it form a stronger leading role,expand its radiation diffusion range,and narrow the development gap within the region?The research aims to analyze the important spatial form of China at this stage,the urban agglomeration,and the impact of the change of the central city’s primacy on the overall economic growth and coordinated development of the region.At the theoretical level,the study analyzes the agglomeration and diffusion effects of central cities and the mechanism of coordinated regional development based on the theory of regional non-equilibrium development and the inverted U-shaped model of optimal urban scale,and constructs a mechanism for the formation of the central city’s primacy on the coordinated development of regional economy.The theoretical framework includes three aspects:the inhibitory effect of the central city on the coordinated development of the region under the agglomeration effect,the promotion effect of the central city on the coordinated development of the region under the diffusion effect,and the mechanism of the different primacy levels of the central city.The changes in different stages of regional economic development and their internal mechanism are analyzed.At the empirical level,the study takes the nineteen major urban agglomerations in China as the research object,uses the panel data of the nineteen major urban agglomerations in China from 2006 to 2017 to carry out fixed effects analysis,and controls the endogeneity problem of the model through the endogeneity test.In order to further explore the nonlinear effect of the central city primacy on the coordinated development of the regional economy,the study further analyzes the effect of the central city primacy on the regional economic coordination through the interaction model of the government’s strategic planning guidance and regional institutional policies,and the identification of the central city primacy distribution.The impact of development and the impact of government strategic planning,regional institutions.The study found that:First,the primacy of central cities has an inverted U-shaped effect on economic growth.Second,the primacy of the central city has a positive U-shaped effect on the coordinated development of the regional economy.Third,the emergence of the national central city policy will further promote the siphon effect of central cities.Although the administrative division does not affect the overall economic growth of the urban agglomeration,it will lead to the widening of the development gap between different provinces within the urban agglomeration.Fourth,urban agglomerations that are still being cultivated and immature in the central and western regions of China should focus on the construction and development of sub-center cities and small and medium-sized cities,and promote the formation of a gradient urban agglomeration structure system in the region.