基于相对热效应的大棚蟠桃发育期预测模型研究

Research on Prediction Model of Growing Period of Greenhouse Flat Peach Based on Relative Thermal Effect

为了研究温度对蟠桃发育期的影响,以相对热效应为预测指标,建立了蟠桃发育期预测模型,并采用独立的试验资料对模型进行检验。结果表明,温室蟠桃花芽膨大期到开花期、开花期到展叶期、展叶期到硬核期、硬核期到成熟期4个阶段所需的相对热效应分别为14.11、10.54、18.37、12.52,其相对热效应模型法回归估计标准误(RMSE)分别为1.13、2.04、4.36、5.51 d,且预测精度明显高于有效积温模型法(RMSE分别为3.36、5.37、11.79、15.28 d)。

In order to study the effect of temperature on the growing period of flat peach,a prediction model of flat peach growing period was established with relative thermal effect as the prediction index,and the model was tested by independent experimental data.The results showed that the relative thermal effects of greenhouse flat peach in 4 periods(flower bud expansion period to flowering period,flowering period to leaf expansion period,leaf expansion period to hard core period,hard core period to mature period)were 14.11,10.54,18.37 and 12.52,respectively.The RMSEs of the relative thermal effect model were 1.13 d,2.04 d,4.36 d and 5.51 d,respectively.The prediction accuracy of the relative thermal effect model was significantly higher than that of the effective accumulated temperature model(RMSEs were3.36 d,5.37 d,11.79 d and 15.28 d,respectively).