俄乌冲突对中国能源安全与高质量发展影响

Influence of Russia-Ukraine Conflict on Chinese Energy Security and Quality Development

俄乌冲突给全球能源发展带来了多重影响,引起了国际化石能源价格高位波动和全球能源供需体系的加速重构,给各国的能源发展带来了重大变化因素。为保障中国能源安全和高质量发展,结合当前世界能源格局变化趋势和中国能源体系发展现状,分析俄乌冲突带来的挑战机遇,并提出应对建议。研究结果表明:俄乌冲突新变局下,中国面临油气生产储备能力不足,油气资源进口重叠区竞争加剧,二次制裁风险等多重挑战,但也为深化中俄能源合作、拓展与发展中国家能源合作,以及加速能源产业升级带来机遇。研究认为,为应对俄乌冲突带来的全球能源变局,应结合中国新型能源体系构建目标,通过加大国内能源资源供给能力、增强能源应急缓冲能力和系统弹性、完善能源市场制度和用能管理,以及深化国际能源合作等关键措施,保障中国能源安全和高质量发展。

Russia-Ukraine conflict has exerted multiple impacts on the global energy development,which causes high fluctuations in international fossil energy prices and accelerated reconstruction of the global energy supply and demand system,bringing major factors of change to the energy development of different countries.In order to safeguard Chinese energy security and quality development,this paper,based on the reality of the changes and trend of the current global energy pattern and the Chinese energy system,analyzes both challenges and opportunities brought by RussiaUkraine conflict and put forth relevant suggestions.According to the research result,given the recent situation of such conflict,China is confronted with an array of challenges such as insufficient oil and gas production and reserve capacity,intensifying competition in overlapping oil and gas import areas,as well as the risk of secondary sanctions.Besides,it brings about opportunities to deepen energy cooperation between China and Russia,expands energy cooperation with developing countries,and accelerates the upgrading of energy industry.In addition,with an aim to cope with the global energy changes brought by the Russia-Ukraine conflict,it is necessary to guarantee China’s energy security and highquality development through important measures such as increasing domestic energy supply capacity,enhancing energy emergency buffer capacity and system flexibility,improving energy market system and energy usage management,and deepening international energy cooperation in light of the goal of building a new energy system in China.