中国天然气进口安全度评价及障碍因子分析

Safety Evaluation and Obstacle Factor Analysis of Chinese Natural Gas Import

在当今全球能源转型进程的驱动下,建立天然气进口安全评价指标体系,探究影响天然气进口的主要因素,对于降低天然气进口风险,逐步实现中国“双碳”目标有着重要意义。结合经济安全、资源安全、消费安全、市场安全和环境安全等5个维度构建中国天然气进口安全评价指标体系,运用熵权法TOPSIS得出2006—2021年中国天然气进口安全及其子系统评价指标指数,最后引入障碍度模型,对阻碍中国天然气进口安全的因素进行分析。研究发现,中国天然气进口安全指数呈现出“V”型的走势,消费安全子系统、市场安全子系统和环境安全子系统对天然气进口安全水平影响较大;中国天然气进口安全的主要障碍因子是二氧化碳排放量、天然气储采比和天然气进口依存度等。

Driven by the current global energy transition process, it is of great significance to set up the evaluation index system of natural gas import safety, explore the main factors affecting natural gas import, reduce the risk of natural gas import, and gradually realize the goal of “double carbon”. The evaluation index system of natural gas import security is constructed f rom five dimensions, including economic safety, resource safety, consumption safety, market safety and environmental safety. The entropy weight TOPSIS method is used to obtain the evaluation index index of natural gas import security and its subsystem from 2006 to 2021. Finally, the obstacle degree model was introduced to analyze the factors deterring Chinese natural gas import safety. The research had it that the safety index of Chinese natural gas import turned out to be “V”-shaped trend while consumption safety subsystem, market safety subsystem and environment safety subsystem exerted great influence on the safety level of natural gas import;the main obstacle factors of China’s natural gas import safety proved to be carbon dioxide emission, natural gas storage and production ratio and natural gas import dependence, etc.