综合能源系统下天然气管网供气可靠性评价方法综述

Review of Assessment Method of Supply Reliability for Natural Gas Pipeline Networks in Integrated Energy Systems

在综合能源系统背景下,可再生能源发电的间歇性、随机性传递到天然气管网,导致供气可靠性评价在不确定性来源、系统行为分析、评价时间尺度等方面都产生了新特点。因此,以综合能源系统背景下的天然气管网为研究对象,分析了供气可靠性评价的关键问题:复杂系统中不确定性量化、不确定性在系统中的传播过程、扰动对系统影响的不确定性等。提出了需要强化设备、市场和可再生能源出力的时序性和概率性耦合量化以满足系统实时供气可靠性分析、需要在考虑能源系统协调优化的基础上提升系统复杂度表征准确性和效率、需要创新探究实时后果不确定性分析方法等思路,为天然气供气可靠性评价提供了借鉴。

In Integrated Energy Systems,the intermittency and randomness of renewables affect the natural gas pipeline network,which leading to new characteristics in gas supply reliability assessment from perspectives of uncertainty sources,system behavior analysis,evaluation time scale,etc.Therefore,taking the natural gas pipeline networks under the background of Integrated Energy Systems as the research topic,this paper analyzed the key issues of gas supply reliability assessment:the quantification of uncertainties in complex systems,the propagation process of uncertainties,and the uncertainties of the impact of disturbances for the system.We proposed some ideals:strengthen the coupling quantification between timing and probabilistic for equipment,market environment and renewables to meet the real-time gas supply reliability analysis;improve the accuracy and efficiency of the system complexity characterization on the basis of considering the coordination and optimization of energy systems;innovate and explore the real-time uncertainty analysis method.Then,These ideas could provide a reference for the future supply reliability assessment of natural gas pipeline networks.