跨越“中等收入陷阱”与迈上高收入阶段的制度影响——透视与探索“制度高墙”之谜

Institutional Impact on Overcoming the Middle-income Trap and Transiting into the High-income Stage:To Explore the Mystery of the Institution Wall

“制度高墙”与跨越“中等收入陷阱”有着密切的联系,但“制度高墙”到底是什么,由什么因素构成,为何在技术显著进步、制度经验更加丰富的今天大多数国家仍难以跨越?以及跨越之后“制度高墙”的影响还存在吗?以上问题仍是待解之谜。本文利用世界银行1987~2019年的国家数据进行比较研究,探究不同制度维度质量水平与一国跨越“中等收入陷阱”之间的规律性联系,结合案例研究,我们提出了SOLDER制度墙框架理论:“制度高墙”是政治稳定与安全、经济体系开放度、市场产权保护法治化水平、收入分配、教育与研究创新等多维制度构成的混合之墙,其间具有集成联动性特点。对一国而言,任何一方面出现严重问题,都可能危及该国经济发展的安全、速度、质量与可持续性,即使在跨越“中等收入陷阱”之后,这些制度要素仍影响着一国的经济增长绩效。

The Institution Wall is closely related to striding across the Middle-income Trap.However,what is the Institution Wall?And why is it still difficult for most countries to stride across the Middle-income Trap under the background that technology has made significant progress and institutional experience has got more abundant today?What’s more,whether the Institution Wall still matters if a country has crossed the Middle-income Trap?The above questions remain unsolved.This paper conducted a systematic and comparative research based on the data sample of countries in the world from 1987 to 2019 of the World Bank,to explore the regular relationship between the quality of different institution dimensions and a country’s leap over the middle-income trap.Combined with case studies,we propose the SOLDER Institution Wall theoretical framework:the Institution Wall is composed of political stability and security,openness of the economic system,legalization of market property protection,income distribution policy as well as the education,research and innovation system,which is characterized by the linkage and integration of different institutional elements.For a country,a serious problem happens in any aspect may threaten the safety,speed,quality and sustainability of economic development.Even a country has crossed the Middle-income Trap,the SOLDER institution level will still affect the performance of a country’s economic growth.