中国地方财政支出绩效(2008~2020):趋势与周期

The Local Fiscal Expenditure Performance in China(2008-2020):Pattern and Cycle

预算体现国家的战略与政策,财政支出是预算执行的集中体现,其绩效反映国家战略和政策实施的效果。基于此,在总结当前我国财政支出绩效评价主要问题的基础上,依据新发展理念构建5项一级、14项二级、31项三级评价指标体系,利用2007~2020年省级数据,结合非径向超效率SBM模型与两期技术前沿方法,构建BM指数,本文从动态和静态两个维度,从产出和效益角度评估了我国地方财政支出的绩效,总结其特征。研究发现:(1)动态看(各省份跨时比较),我国地方财政支出绩效呈2008~2011年的持续下降、2012~2017年的稳步上升及2018年后的轻微下行3个阶段;(2)地方财政支出绩效的变化呈现出一定的周期性,在省级党代会召开前一年和当年,以及财政压力加大、政府债务发行加力的阶段,总体表现更好;(3)静态看(省份之间横向比较),各省财政支出绩效存在明显差异,从排序来看,北京、广东等省份稳定地处于第一阵营,贵州、河北等省份提升空间较大,省际差异总体呈震荡上升趋势。本文结论展现了我国财政支出的成效和问题,对深化预算管理制度改革的方向有一定启示。

The budget reflects the country’s strategies and policies.Fiscal expenditure is a key part of budget execution and its performance reveals the effectiveness of the implementation of national strategies and policies.In this paper,we discuss the limitations of the literature on evaluating the performance of fiscal expenditure.And on this basis,we construct an evaluation index system containing 5 primary indicators,14 secondary indicators and 31 tertiary indicators in accordance with the new development philosophy.Then,by employing Chinese provincial data from 2007 to 2020,we use the Super-SBM model and the biennial Malmquist productivity change index to assess the performance of local fiscal spending in both dynamic and static dimensions.We find that China’s local government expenditure performance deteriorated from 2008-2011,improved from 2012-2017 and declined slightly after 2018.In addition,performance levels have some certain cyclical characteristics which are closely linked to important political events and financial pressures.We also find that there are significant differences in the performance across provinces.Provinces such as Beijing and Guangdong are firmly at the top of the rankings,while provinces such as Hebei and Guizhou have much room for improvement.And the overall trend of inter-provincial differences is on the increase.The results reveal the effectiveness as well as the problems of China’s fiscal expenditure and shed some light on the direction of deepening the reform of China’s budget management system.