我国绿色低碳循环经济高质量发展的空间非均衡性及收敛性

Spatial Imbalance and Convergence on the High-quality Development of China’s Green Low-carbon Circular Economy

基于2010—2020年我国30个省份面板数据,采用主成分分析法测度绿色低碳循环经济高质量发展指数。在此基础上,利用核密度估计法和达古姆(Dagum)基尼系数研究低碳循环经济高质量发展指数的动态演化趋势、地区差异及来源,使用变异系数法等方法检验其σ收敛与β收敛特征。研究显示,2010—2020年我国整体绿色低碳循环经济高质量发展指数呈现稳步上升态势;四个地区绿色低碳循环经济高质量发展指数差异明显,且差异主要来源于地区间差异;绿色低碳循环经济高质量发展指数空间分布呈现显著非均衡特征和渐进式演化形态,空间集聚性显著;除东北地区外,全国及东部地区、中部地区、西部地区三个地区的绿色低碳循环经济高质量发展指数偏离平均水平幅度并未随时间推移有所降低;在控制其他因素前提下,东部地区、中部地区、西部地区、东北地区绿色低碳循环经济高质量发展指数明显收敛为同等水平;在考虑多因素差异化条件下,绿色低碳循环经济高质量发展指数较低地区增速明显超过较高地区。鉴于此,我国应激活各地发展动能,加速形成绿色生产方式;优化相关政策体系,助力缩小地区发展差距;推行全面集约战略,促进资源循环高效利用,以期为制定绿色低碳循环发展方式转型战略提供决策参考。

Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2010 to 2020,the authors establish an evaluation index system,and uses the principal component analysis method to measure the high-quality development level of green and lowcarbon circular economy.On this basis,Kernel density estimation and Dagum gini coefficient are used to explore the dynamic evolution trend,regional differences and sources of high-quality development of green low-carbon circular economy,and coefficient of variation is used to test itsσconvergence andβconvergence characteristics.The research shows that:the overall level of high-quality development of China’s green low-carbon circular economy is steadily rising from 2010 to 2020;the high quality development indices of green low-carbon circular economy in the four regions are quite different from each other,and the differences mainly come from the regional differences;the spatial distribution of high-quality development of green low-carbon circular economy presents significant unbalanced characteristics and gradual evolution with significant spatial agglomeration;in addition to the northeast,the deviation from the average level of high-quality development of green low-carbon circular economy in China and the three major regions of the east,central and west has not declined over time;under the premise of controlling other factors,the high-quality development of green low-carbon circular economy in east,central,west,and northeast China has obviously converged to the same level;and considering the multi factor differentiation,the growth rate of regions with low level of high-quality development of green low-carbon circular economy is significantly higher than that of regions with high level of that.Accordingly,we should,first,activate the momentum of development in various regions to accelerate the formation of a green mode of production;second,we should optimize the relevant policy system to help narrow the regional development gap;and third,we should promote comprehensive and intensive strategy to promote resource recycling and efficient utilization,so as to provide decision-making reference for the formulation of transformation strategy of green low-carbon circular development mode.