基于Joinpoint模型的我国和境外输入新型冠状病毒感染趋势对比

Comparison of the Epidemic Trend of Nover Coronavirus Infection Between China and Overseas Based on Jionpoint Model

目的 通过分析我国新型冠状病毒日新增感染人数及境外日输入新型冠状病毒感染人数的变化趋势,为我国新型冠状病毒感染防控提供理论参考。方法 基于国家卫健委和各地政府2021年5月1日-8月31日发布的各个地区和境外输入的新型冠状病毒感染数据,运用Joinpoint回归模型拟合2021年5月-8月新型冠状病毒日新增感染人数和境外输入日感染人数的时间趋势,分析防控措施实施的时间与Joinpoint模型转折点之间关系。结果 模型拟合结果显示,境外日输入新型冠状病毒感染人数的时间趋势出现2个转折点,分别在2021年7月11日和7月19日:5月1日至7月11日为缓慢上升期;7月11日至7月19日快速上升期;7月19日至8月31日为缓慢下降期。境内每日新增新型冠状病毒感染人数时间趋势出现2个转折点,分别在2021年7月12日和8月8日,其中5月1日至7月12日为上升期;7月13日至8月8日为快速上升期;8月9日至31日为快速下降期。在此期间我国累计新型冠状病毒感染人数的时间趋势存在2个较为明显的转折点,将时间序列划分为3个阶段,其中5月1日-7月22日为平缓增加期,7月23日-8月13日为快速增加期,8月14日-8月31日为平缓增加期。结论Joinpoint模型能较好地捕捉疫情变化阶段特征,进一步反馈防控措施的有效性。

Objective To provide a theoretical reference for the prevention and control of nover coronavirus infection in China by analyzing the trend of the number of new infections per day in China and the number of imported new coronavirus infections per day in overseas. Methods Based on the epidemic data of nover coronavirus infection imported from various regions and overseas during the period from May 1, 2021 to August 31, 2021 issued by the National Health Commission and local governments, the time trend of the number of new infections and the number of infections imported from overseas from May 1, 2021 to August 19, 2021 was fitted by using the Joinpoint regression model, and the relationship between the implementation time of prevention and control measures and the turning point of the Joinpoint model was analyzed.Results The model fitting results showed that there were two turning points in the time trend of the number of people infected with nover coronavirus imported from overseas every day, namely, July 11, 2021 and July 19, 2021, while the slow rise period was from May 1 to July 11;the rapid rise period was from July 11 to July 19;the slow decline period was from July 19 to August 31. There were two turning points in the time trend of the daily number of new nover coronavirus infections in China, namely July 12,2021 and August 8, 2021, while the the rising period was from May 1 to July 12;the rapid rise period was from July 13 to August 8;the rapid decline period was from August 9 to 31. During this period, there were two obvious turning points in the time trend of the cumulative number of nover coronavirus infections in China. The time series was divided into three stages, of which the period from May 1 to July 22 was a gentle increase period,July 23 to August 13 was a rapid increase period, and August 14 to August 31 was a gentle increase period.Conclusion Joinpoint model can better capture the characteristics of epidemic change stage and further feedback the effectiveness of prevention and control measures.