双碳约束下煤化工行业节煤降碳减污协同

Coal-carbon-pollutant Coordinated Control of Coal Chemical Industry Under Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality Constraints

在碳达峰碳中和背景下,煤化工行业应采取更为积极的二氧化碳减排措施.基于煤化工行业原料结构调整、燃料结构调整、节能技术改造、末端捕集技术和产业结构调整五大节煤降碳措施力度不同,采用下游部门需求法和项目法以及大气污染物减排模型,核算预测3种情景(基准、政策和强化)煤化工行业煤炭消耗和二氧化碳排放变化,以及大气污染物协同减排效应.结果表明,煤化工行业基准和政策情景下煤炭消费量预计在“十四五”后期达峰,峰值分别为9.6亿t和9.3亿t;强化情景下有望在“十四五”前期达峰,峰值约为9.1亿t.二氧化碳排放量在基准、政策和强化情景下分别于“十五五”末期、“十四五”末期和“十四五”前期达峰,达峰量分别为6.4亿、 5.7亿和5.5亿t.控制现代煤化工项目建设规模、挖掘原料替代的空间以及节能技术改造是减少煤化工行业煤耗和二氧化碳排放的重要措施手段.实施煤化工行业节煤降碳措施,政策情景下预计到2035年每年可协同减少SO_(2)、 NO_(x)、 PM和VOCs等大气污染物排放3.7万、 4.3万、 1.1万和2.8万t.

Under carbon peak and carbon neutrality constraints,the coal chemical industry should take stricter measures to tackle carbon reduction.Based on the intensity differences of five major coal and carbon reduction measures applied by the coal chemical industry,which include raw material structure adjustment,fuel structure adjustment,energy-saving technology transformation,terminal capture technology,and industrial structure adjustment,this study adopted the downstream sector demand method and project method,combined with the air pollution reduction model,to predict three scenarios(benchmark,policy,and enhancement) of coal chemical industry peak year and peak amount of coal consumption and carbon dioxide emission,associated with air pollutant reduction row effects.The results showed that coal consumption under the benchmark and policy scenarios of the coal chemical industry is expected to reach a peak in the late period of China’s “14^(th) Five-Year Plan”,with peak values of 0.96 billion and 0.93 billion tons,respectively.By contrast,under the enhanced scenario,it is expected to peak in the early period of the “14^(th) Five-Year Plan” with a value of 0.91 billion tons.The carbon peak will arrive in the late period of the “15^(th) Five-Year Plan” under the benchmark scenario but in the early and late period of the “14^(th) Five-Year Plan” under the policy and enhanced scenarios,with peak values of approximately 0.64 billion,0.57 billion,and 0.55 billion tons,respectively.Controlling the construction scale of new coal chemical projects,tapping the space for raw material substitution,and speeding up the energy-saving technological transformation are important measures for coal and carbon control in the coal chemical industry.The implementation of coal and carbon reduction measures of the coal chemical industry will coordinately reduce air pollutant emissions,such as SO_(2),NO_(x),PM,and VOCs by 37,43,11,and 28 thousand tons per year after 2035.