全球乙烯产业格局变化及发展前景分析

The change and development prospect of global ethylene industry

在能源转型、“净零”碳排放的大趋势下,全球乙烯产业的供应、消费、原料、贸易等都发生了显著变化。中国在2022年超越美国成为全球最大乙烯生产国,影响力和地位显著提升,全球乙烯消费重心加快东移。乙烯原料多元化和轻质化进程加快,乙烷等轻质原料占比持续增加。乙烯装置规模大型化,技术路线多元化和低碳化。全球乙烯贸易规模扩大,美国出口地位不断提升。预计2026年全球乙烯产能达到约2.5亿吨/年,2030年达到约2.7亿吨/年。为应对行业碳减排的迫切要求,乙烯生产商将加快研发低碳乙烯生产技术。高油价环境更加有利于中东和美国乙烯生产商,丰富的资源将继续支撑乙烷相对石脑油的乙烯原料优势。长期看,由于原料优势逐渐收窄,未来美国乙烯净出口份额可能会逐渐受到挤压。

Under the trend of energy transition and “net zero” emissions, the supply, consumption, feedstocks, and trade of the global ethylene industry have changed significantly. In 2022, China surpassed the United States to become the world’s largest ethylene producer, significantly increasing its influence and status, and accelerating the eastward shift of global ethylene consumption. The diversification and lightening process of ethylene feedstocks is accelerated and the proportion of light feedstocks such as ethane continue to increase. Ethylene plant scale becomes larger, the technical route tends to be diversified and low carbonization. The scale of global ethylene trade is expanding and the export status of the United States is improving.Global ethylene production capacity is expected to reach about 250 mmtpy by 2026 and 270 mmtpy by 2030. In response to the industry’s urgent need to reduce emissions, ethylene producers will accelerate the development of low-carbon ethylene production technology. The high oil price environment is more favorable for ethylene producers in the Middle East and the United States, and abundant resources will continue to support the advantages of ethane over naphtha. In the long run, the share of US net exports of ethylene is likely to be gradually squeezed as raw feedstocks advantages gradually narrow.