基于倾向匹配方法的加油站营销效果分析与实证

Measurement and empirical study of gas station marketing effect based on propensity matching method

对于加油站营销管理的研究文献存在深度和适用性方面的不足。本文选用倾向得分匹配方法,以实现对促销效果的精确测量。在调研1402座加油站的基础上,将采用促销策略的站点组别(处理组)与没有采用促销策略的站点组别(控制组)进行配对,采用近邻匹配、半径匹配、核匹配三种匹配方法进行综合评估,利用倾向匹配方法建立实证模型,评估整体促销、单独使用卡折扣、电子券、价格直降和其他促销的效果,分析促销力度的影响,并对促销策略有效性进行异质性分析。成品油零售市场的价格弹性较高,促销力度和促销方式都会对加油站销量产生明显的作用。通过量化模型回答了实际业务中“选择哪种促销方案、促销力度多大”的问题,对促销方案的效果预估、可行性等进行探索,为公司和加油站进一步营销提供量化参考。该模型可对加油站进行分类分组评估,也可发展成为软件或者系统产品进行工程应用。

The research literature on gas station marketing management suffers from a lack of depth and applicability.In this paper, a propensity score matching method is selected to achieve an accurate measurement of promotional effectiveness.Based on a study of 1402 gas stations, the group of stations with promotional strategies(treatment group) is paired with the group of stations without promotional strategies(control group), and such three matching methods as nearest-neighbor matching, radius matching and kernel matching, are used to conduct a comprehensive assessment, and the propensity score matching method is used to establish an empirical model to evaluate the effects of overall promotions, as well as card discounts alone, e-coupons,direct price reductions, and other promotions. It analyzes the impact of promotion strength and heterogeneity of promotion strategy effectiveness. With high price elasticity of the refined oil retail market, the intensity and way of promotion will have an obvious effect on gas station sales. Through the quantitative model, this paper answers the question of “which kind of promotion plan to choose and how much to promote” in the actual business, explores the effect estimation and feasibility of the promotion plan, and provides quantitative reference for the company and gas station to further marketing. The model can evaluate in groups of categories for gas stations, and be developed into software or system products for engineering applications.