数字经济能否促进产业结构转型?——兼论有效市场和有为政府

Can the Digital Economy Contribute to the Transformation of the Industrial Structure?A Discussion of Effective Markets and Efficient Government

基于282个地级及以上城市的面板数据,对数字经济与产业结构转型的关系进行研究。结果表明,数字经济可以显著促进产业结构转型,且对产业结构转型的影响存在边际效应递增的非线性特征。当数字经济跨越门槛值后,对第一产业与第二产业的促进作用呈递减趋势,对第三产业的促进作用则逐渐增强。进一步研究发现,数字经济对产业结构转型的影响存在基于有效市场与有为政府的非线性效应,随着市场化水平与政府效率的提升并跨越门槛值,数字经济对产业结构转型的促进作用会进一步增强。空间杜宾模型结果表明数字经济可通过空间外溢效应作用于邻边地区的产业结构转型。因此,应积极建设有效市场与有为政府,加强数字核心技术供给,推进数字经济与实体经济相融合,以便更好地促进产业结构转型。

Based on a panel of 282 prefecture-level and above cities, the relationship between the digital economy and industrial structural transformation is investigated. The results show that the digital economy can significantly promote the transformation of industrial structure, and the impact on the transformation of industrial structure has a non-linear characteristic of increasing marginal effect. When the digital economy crosses the threshold, the promotion effect on the primary and secondary industries tends to decrease, while the promotion effect on the tertiary industry gradually increases. The study further finds that the impact of the digital economy on the transformation of the industrial structure has a non-linear effect based on effective market and efficient government, and as the level of marketization and government efficiency increases and crosses the threshold, the contribution of the digital economy to the transformation of the industrial structure will further increase. The results of the spatial Durbin model show that the digital economy can act on the structural transformation of industries in neighbouring regions through spatial spillover effects.Therefore, we should actively build an effective market and a responsive government, strengthen the supply of core digital technologies and promote the integration of the digital economy with the real economy in order to better facilitate the transformation of the industrial structure.