“双碳”背景下内蒙古碳排放情景仿真模拟研究

Simulation Study on Carbon Emission in Inner Mongolia under the Background of"Double Carbon"

运用碳排放系数法测算内蒙古2005—2020年碳排放量,构建包括人口、经济、环境、能源和碳交易5个子系统的碳排放系统动力学模型,仿真模拟6种情景下二氧化碳排放变化趋势。研究表明,2005—2020年间内蒙古碳排放整体呈现上升趋势;经济发展、能源结构、产业结构均影响内蒙古碳排放达峰时间及峰值量;实行碳交易机制后内蒙古碳减排作用效果明显;优化情景下碳减排效果最佳,内蒙古有望在2023年提早碳达峰。

The Carbon emission coefficient method is used to calculate the carbon emissions of Inner Mongolia from 2005 to 2020,and the carbon emission system dynamics model including five subsystems of population,economy,environment,energy and carbon trading is constructed to simulate the changing trend of carbon dioxide emissions under six scenarios.The research shows that the carbon emission of Inner Mongolia showed an overall upward trend from 2005 to 2020.Economic development,energy structure and industrial structure all affect the peak time and peak amount of carbon emissions in Inner Mongolia.The effect of carbon emission reduction in Inner Mongolia is obvious after the implementation of carbon trading mechanism.Under the optimized scenario,the carbon emission reduction effect is the best,and Inner Mongolia is expected to reach the carbon peak early in 2023.