基于DEA-SBM模型的安徽省低碳经济效率研究

Research on Low Carbon Economic Efficiency of Anhui Province Based on DEA-SBM Model

采用非期望产出SBM模型对安徽省2011—2021年经济发展与碳排放之间的关系进行研究,通过Tobit模型考察外部性因素对低碳经济效率值的影响,使用ARIMA模型对安徽省未来低碳经济发展状况进行预测。结果表明:(1)2011—2021年安徽省低碳经济发展状况良好,效率值明显提升;空间上呈现由中部地区向东西两侧效率递减。(2)安徽省低碳经济效率更多依赖于第三产业、城市绿化程度的驱动。(3)安徽省未来5年的GDP碳强度保持增长趋势,预计2026年突破18万元/t。

The undesired output SBM model is used to study the relationship between economic development and carbon emissions in Anhui Province from 2011 to 2021.The Tobit model is used to examine the impact of external factors on the efficiency of low-carbon economy,and the ARIMA model is used to predict the future development of low-carbon economy in Anhui Province.The results show that:(a)From 2011 to 2021,the development of low-carbon economy in Anhui Province is in good condition,and the efficiency value is significantly improved;spatially,the efficiency decreases from the central region to the east and west sides.(b)The efficiency of low-carbon economy in Anhui Province depends more on the tertiary industry and the degree of urban greening.(c)The carbon intensity of GDP in Anhui Province will maintain a growth trend in the next five years,and is expected to exceed 180000 yuan/t in 2026.