环境政策评估:一个宏观经济分析框架的综述

Environmental Policy Assessment:A Review on Macroeconomic Analysis Framework

环境动态随机一般均衡(E-DSGE)模型以其良好的扩展性和预测性逐渐被环境宏观经济学者接纳。环境因素的引入包括经济系统对环境系统的作用、环境系统的演化过程、环境系统对经济系统的反作用等方式。E-DSGE模型中的不确定性冲击包括经济不确定性冲击、政策不确定性冲击和环境不确定性冲击。E-DSGE模型中环境政策的讨论重点包括环境税、限额与交易、强度管制等。多重环境政策的组合效应、环境影响的国际传导以及环境政策与宏观经济政策的融合等是E-DSGE模型研究的重要前沿课题。加强新凯恩斯框架下E-DSGE模型的构建与应用,加强跨流域和跨界的环境问题、水的问题、碳的问题等研究是下一阶段E-DSGE建模的重点。

Environmental dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(E-DSGE)models is gradually accepted and used by environmental macroeconomists because of its good model expansibility and predictability.The introduction of environmental factors includes the role of economic system on environmental system,the evolution process of environmental system,and the reaction of environmental system on economic system.Uncertainty shocks in E-DSGE model can be divided into economic uncertainty shocks,policy uncertainty shocks and environmental uncertainty shocks.The discussion of environmental policy in the E-DSGE model focuses on environmental tax,cap and trade,and intensity regulation.Combined effect of multiple environmental policies,international transmission of environmental impacts and integration of environmental and macroeconomic policies are typical frontier topics.The further key E-DSGE issues are to strengthen the coupling innovation of environmental and economic systems,the construction and application of E-DSGE model under the new Keynesian framework,and the E-DSGE research on transboundary environmental problems,water problems and carbon problems.