南宁市农业生态安全评价及障碍因子诊断

Evaluation of Agricultural Ecological Safety and Diagnosis of Obstacle Factors in Nanning

探究南宁市2010—2020年农业生态安全状况,为区域绿色农业发展、生态文明建设提供理论依据。构建“压力-状态-响应”模型,采用熵权法和TOPSIS模型对南宁市农业生态安全状况进行综合评价,结合评价结果建立障碍因子诊断模型,进行障碍度诊断分析。结果表明:南宁市农业生态安全综合指数整体呈现下降趋势,期间存在波动变化,生态安全等级处于危险状态;影响南宁市农业生态安全的主要障碍因子包括第三产业占GDP比重、农民人均纯收入、化肥施用强度、耕地复种指数、有效灌溉面积、农作物成灾率和土地垦殖率等;南宁市农业生态安全水平亟需加强,未来发展中应合理利用土地资源、调整和优化产业结构以及加强农业科技力量和生态建设力度。

To explore the status of agricultural ecological security in Nanning from 2010 to 2020 and to provide a theoretical basis for the development of regional green agriculture and the construction of ecological civilization,a“pressure-state-res-ponse”model was constructed,and the entropy weight method and the TOPSIS model were used to comprehensively evaluate the agricultural ecological security situation in Nanning.Combined with the evaluation results,a diagnostic model of obstacle factors was established to diagnose and analyze the degree of obstacle.The results showed that:the overall index of agricul-tural ecological security in Nanning showed a downward trend,fluctuated during the period,and the ecological security level was in a dangerous state;the main obstacle factors affecting the agricultural ecological security in Nanning included the pro-portion of the tertiary industry in GDP,the per capita net income of farmers,fertilizer application intensity,arable land multi-ple cropping index,effective irrigation area,crop disaster rate,and land reclamation rate,etc.;the level of agroecological safety in Nanning needs to be strengthened urgently,future development should involve rational use of land resources,ad-justment,and optimization of industrial structure,as well as strengthening the power of agricultural science and technology and ecological construction efforts.