地方经济增长目标对城市经济韧性的影响——基于我国276个城市的实证研究

The Impact of Local Economic Growth Targets on Urban Economic Resilience:Research Based on the Evidence of 276 Cities in China

文章基于我国2005—2019年276个城市的面板数据,从目标管理的视角,实证检验了地方经济增长目标对城市经济韧性的影响。研究表明:较高的经济增长目标会对城市经济韧性产生抑制作用,但对位于不同区域、不同资源类型的城市影响有所差异,过高的经济增长目标对中西部城市的经济韧性具有显著的抑制效果,而对东部城市的影响则不显著;机制检验表明,城市创新水平在经济增长目标与城市经济韧性间起到遮掩效应,生产性服务业的占比及集聚水平则在两者间起中介作用。研究结果有助于厘清地方经济增长目标对城市经济韧性的作用机理,为城市制定合理的经济增长目标进而提升城市经济韧性提供参考。

Based on the panel data of 276 cities in China from 2005 to 2019,this paper empirically tests the impact of local economic growth targets on urban economic resilience from the perspective of target management.The research shows that higher economic growth targets have a restraining effect on urban economic resilience,but the impact on cities located in different regions and different resource types is different.The excessively high economic growth target has a significant restraining effect on the economic resilience of cities in the central and western regions,while the impact on the eastern cities is not significant;mechanism test shows that the level of urban innovation plays a masking effect between economic growth targets and urban economic resilience,while the proportion of productive services and the level of agglomeration play a mediating role between the two.The research results are helpful to clarify the mechanism of local economic growth targets on urban economic resilience,and provide reference for cities to formulate reasonable economic growth targets and improve urban economic resilience.