电力系统中时序场景生成和约简方法研究综述

Review of Power System Temporal Scenario Generation and Reduction Methods

随着能源转型的推进,可再生能源以及新型负荷的渗透率不断提高,其引入的不确定性给电力系统安全与经济运行带来极大的挑战。对电力系统中不确定性因素精确建模是保证新一代电力系统安全稳定运行的基础。采用时序场景生成和约简技术对不确定性因素建模是推动电力系统不确定优化技术发展的关键。针对电力系统中时序场景生成和约简方法进行了系统性综述。首先,从研究对象和数学问题阐述了电力系统时序场景生成和约简的基本概念。其次,综述了电力系统中场景生成和约简的现有研究方法、评价指标以典型应用场景。最后对现阶段研究中存在的问题进行了归纳,并展望了未来的发展趋势和挑战。

With the promotion of energy transformation, the penetration of renewable energy and novel load is continuously increasing, which brings great challenges to the security and economic operation of the power system. Accurate modeling of the uncertain factors in the power system is the basis of ensuring the safe and stable operation of the new generation power system. The key to promoting the development of uncertain optimization in power systems is modeling of uncertain factors using the temporal scenario generation and the reduction methods. The methods of scenario generation and scenario reduction are thoroughly discussed in this paper. To begin with, the fundamental concepts of scenario generation in power systems are presented from the standpoints of the research objects and a mathematical problem. Secondly, the existing research methods, evaluation indexes and typical application scenarios of the scenario generation and reduction in the power system are summarized. Finally, the problems existing in the current researches are induced, and the future development trends and challenges are prospected.