“双碳”目标下中国海洋渔业碳排放效率区域差异及碳减排潜力研究

Research on regional disparities in carbon emission efficiency and carbon emission reduction potential of China’s marine fisheries under the“Dual-Carbon”target

基于“碳排”和“碳汇”核算中国海洋渔业碳排放量,运用非期望产出超效率SBM模型测算1980-2019年海洋渔业碳排放效率,并用基尼系数、泰尔指数和变异系数等数理统计分析方法定量分析其区域差异,最后测算中国海洋渔业碳减排潜力。结果表明:研究期间海洋渔业碳排放量整体呈逐年增长的趋势;中国海洋渔业碳排放效率平均水平较高,整体呈先上升后缓慢下降的趋势;中国海洋渔业碳排放效率区域差异明显,数理统计分析法测算变动趋势一致性较高,整体呈波动扩大的演变格局;中国海洋渔业碳减排潜力水平相对稳定,整体呈波动上升的趋势,主要分为3个波动期,碳减排潜力类型多样。

Based on carbon emissions and carbon sinks,the carbon emissions of China’s marine fisheries were calculated,and the undesired output super-efficiency SBM model was used to estimate the carbon emissions efficiency of China’s marine fisheries from 1980 to 2019.Regional disparities were quantitatively analyzed at the regional and regional levels,and finally the carbon emission reduction potential of China’s marine fisheries was estimated.The results showed that:The overall carbon emission of marine fisheries showed an increasing trend year by year during the study period.The average level of carbon emission efficiency of China’s marine fisheries in China was relatively high,and the overall trend of rising first and then slowly decreasing.The regional differences in the carbon emission efficiency of China’s marine fisheries were obvious.The variation trend calculated by the mathematical statistical analysis method has a high consistency,and the overall evolution pattern is fluctuating and expanding.The carbon emission reduction potential level of China’s marine fishery is relatively stable,and the overall trend is fluctuating and rising.It is divided into three fluctuation periods.There are various types of emission reduction potentials.