基于主成分分析的郑州市降雨量因素评价

Evaluation of Rainfall Factors in Zhengzhou Based on Principal Component Analysis

降雨量是城市内涝发生的主要表征量,但是评估温度和湿度对降雨量影响的研究较少。笔者基于郑州市1951—2013年的年降雨量及影响降雨量的温度和湿度因素数据,采用主成分分析的方法对其进行筛选和综合分析。结果表明:郑州市年降雨量整体呈下降趋势,变化倾向率为-3.84 mm/10 a;在影响降雨量因素的各主成分中,提取的前3个主成分累计贡献率达到了87.17%,基本包含了影响降雨量6个指标的全部信息,可综合反映郑州市的降雨量。研究结果可为郑州市预防洪涝灾害提供有益参考。

Rainfall is the main characteristic quantity of urban waterlogging, but there are few studies to evaluate the impact of temperature and humidity on rainfall. Based on the data of annual rainfall and temperature and humidity factors affecting rainfall in Zhengzhou from 1951 to 2013, the author uses the principal component analysis method to screen and comprehensively analyze them. The results show that the annual rainfall in Zhengzhou has a downward trend as a whole, with a trend rate of-3. 84 mm/10 a;Among the principal components affecting rainfall, the cumulative contribution rate of the first three principal components extracted reached 87.17%, basically including all the information of the six indicators affecting rainfall, which can comprehensively reflect the rainfall of Zhengzhou. The research results can provide useful reference for flood prevention in Zhengzhou.