基于事故成因的房屋建筑施工风险耦合评价方法

Assessment Method for Risk Coupling in Housing Construction Based on Accident Cause

为科学评价房屋建筑施工风险,获得更为合理的风险评价结果,从风险因素耦合效应视角分析房屋建筑施工风险耦合成因机理,界定不同耦合状态的构成条件。基于此,分析风险因素的固有危险性和事故成因,考虑风险评价对象和应用阶段的差异性,将耦合概率与传统风险评估方法结合使用,提出一种基于事故成因的房屋建筑施工风险耦合评价方法,并进行实例应用。结果表明:该方法能够有效评估房屋建筑施工风险,确定房屋建筑施工风险等级,评价结果更符合房屋建筑施工对风险的认知。研究结果可为房屋建筑施工安全风险定量化评估提供新的方法和思路。

In order to scientifically assess the housing construction risk and obtain more reasonable risk assessment results,the genetic mechanism of the risk coupling in the housing construction was analyzed from the perspective of the coupling effect of risk factors,and the constitutive conditions of different coupling states were defined.An assessment method for the risk coupling in the housing construction based on the accident cause was proposed through analyzing inherent hazards of risk factors and accident causes,taking into account differences between the risk assessment object and the specific application phase,and combining the coupling probability method with traditional risk assessment methods.The example application was carried out.The results show that this method can effectively assess the housing construction risk,determine the risk level of the housing construction,and make the assessment conclusion more consistent with the cognition on the housing construction risk.The research results can provide the new method and idea for the quantitative assessment of safety risks in the housing construction.