计及多维隐患因素的输变电设备中长期故障率建模方法

Mid-and long-term risk assessment of power equipment accounting for multi-dimensional hazard factors

随着新能源并网比例的不断提高,电网装备水平和管理模式快速发展,电网的风险管理面临新的不确定因素挑战。本文提出一种计及多维隐患因素的输变电设备中长期故障率建模方法。该方法首先运用头脑风暴法汇总相关业务部门对不同类型设备风险隐患因素的经验化筛选结果,完成设备风险隐患因素的识别,再按照不同的维度对隐患因素进行归类,在对每一个维度的故障频度进行单独建模后,经加权得到设备的中长期故障率。通过西北电网750kV罐式断路器的风险评估案例分析,展示了所提方法的实际应用效果。

Power grid equipment and management mode are evolving fast to adapt for the ever-increasing portfolios of renewable energy in power generation. Power grid risk management is facing continuous challenge of new stochastic factors. This paper proposes a mid-and long-term failure rate model of power transmission equipment accounting for multi-dimensional hazard factors. Firstly,the proposed method employs the brain storming to summarize empirical equipment-related hazards factors which are provided by professional equipment management departments. Such a process can be regarded as the hazard factor identification. The summarized hazards factors are classified into various categories with distinct dimension sense. For each category or dimension, an independent failure frequency indicator is defined, which is then weighted to result in the so-called multi-dimensional failure rate(EFR). Case study on risk assessment of the Northwest 750kV tank circuit breakers is conducted to demonstrate a practical application of the proposed method.