基于SIR模型的航班延误扩散行为研究

Research on Flight Delay Diffusion Behavior Based on SIR Model

为了避免航班延误扩散现象的加剧,更好地理解航班延误扩散行为过程,因此对延误扩散行为的传播规律进行了研究。首先对传染病传播机制与航班延误扩散行为进行相似性分析,并基于航班延误扩散传播机理和SIR模型,建立航班延误扩散动力学模型,最后采用相轨线分析和参数分析的方法,分析扩散趋势和参数变化对扩散过程的影响。研究表明,所构建的模型一定程度上可以表达航班延误扩散传播过程的基本规律,并且为今后缓解航班延误扩散制定管理措施也同样有着重要参考意义。

In order to avoid the aggravation of flight delay diffusion phenomenon and better understand the process of flight delay diffusion behavior, the propagation law of delay diffusion behavior is studied. Firstly, the similarity between the transmission mechanism of infectious diseases and the flight delay diffusion behavior is analyzed and based on the flight delay diffusion mechanism and SIR model, the flight delay diffusion dynamic model is established. Finally, the influence of diffusion trend and parameter changes on the diffusion process is analyzed by using the methods of phase trajectory analysis and parameter analysis. The research shows that the model can express the basic law of flight delay diffusion process to a certain extent, and it also has important reference significance for formulating management measures to alleviate flight delay diffusion in the future.