数字经济对碳生产效率的影响:时空演化、传导机制与政策启示

Research on the Impact of Digital Economy on Carbon Productivity:Spatial Evolution,Transmission Mechanism and Policy Enlightenment

数字经济与低碳经济融合发展是我国在新发展时期加快构建新发展格局、推动高质量发展的必然要求,是中国式现代化道路探索的有力实践。碳生产效率作为衡量经济发展与节能减碳水平的重要指标,已成为“双碳”目标实现的重要发力点。现有研究对碳生产效率相关研究仍未完善,而关于数字经济发展与碳生产效率机制作用的研究更是处于起步阶段。本文基于2011~2019年中国30个省份数据构建碳生产率与数字经济发展水平指标,运用三维核密度、非线性中介效应与门槛回归模型分析地区碳生产率的空间分布演变趋势,探讨数字经济与碳生产效率的基本作用路径与非线性传导机制。研究表明,我国碳生产效率水平在稳步提升的同时也存在极化分布趋势;数字经济发展水平对碳生产效率有显著正向影响,产业结构高级化演变对其产生部分中介效应与非线性传导作用。

The integration of digital economy and low-carbon economy is an inevitable requirement for China to accelerate the construction of a new development pattern and promote high-quality development in the new era,and is a powerful practice for exploring the Chinese path to modernization.As an important indicator for measuring economic development and carbon reduction,carbon productivity has become a key driving force for achieving the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.Existing research on carbon productivity is still incomplete,and the mechanism of digital economy development in carbon productivity is still in the initial stage.This paper constructs indicators of carbon productivity and digital economy development levels based on data from 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2019,uses three-dimensional nuclear density,nonlinear intermediary effects and threshold regression models to analyze the spatial distribution and evolution trends of regional carbon productivity,and explore the basic path and non-linear transmission mechanism of the digital economy in carbon productivity.The result shows that while the level of carbon productivity in China is steadily increasing,there is also a trend of polarization in its distribution.The level of the digital economy has a significant positive impact on carbon productivity,and the advanced evolution of the industrial structure has a partial intermediary effect and non-linear transmission effect on it.