县域小城镇人口规模结构及其演变的分形特征比较研究——以苏州县级市为例

Comparative Study on the Fractal Characteristics of the Population Size Structure and Evolution of Small Towns in the County Areas——A Case of County-level Cities in Suzhou

为了定量分析比较昆山市、常熟市、张家港市和太仓市城镇人口规模结构的变化规律,通过梳理各县级市小城镇数量变化情况,运用分形方法,以1985年、2000年、2009年和2020年的各县级市城镇人口统计数据为样本,分别计算了城镇人口规模结构的分形维数。研究表明:在小城镇数量变化方面,常熟市收缩幅度最大,其次是张家港市和太仓市,昆山市收缩幅度最小;在人口数量方面,昆山市处于领先地位,其次是常熟市和张家港市,太仓市相对较少但人口年平均增长率仅次于昆山市;在城镇规模分布方面,昆山市和张家港市城镇体系等级规模分布比较分散,尤其昆山市,人口分布差异程度最大,首位城镇的垄断性最强;常熟市和太仓市城镇规模分布比较集中,尤其是太仓市人口分布最均衡,中间位序的城镇数目最多。在上述结论的基础上,对苏州县级市小城镇的后续发展提出了建议。

In order to quantitatively analyze and compare the changing laws of urban population size structure in Kunshan City,Changshu City,Zhangjiagang City and Taicang City,by sorting out the changes in the number of small towns in each county-level city,using the fractal method,the urban population statistics of each county-level city in 1985,2000,2009 and 2020 are used as samples.The research shows that:in terms of changes in the number of small towns,Changshu City has the largest shrinkage,followed by Zhangjiagang City and Taicang City,and Kunshan City has the smallest shrinkage;in terms of population,Kunshan City is in the leading position,followed by Changshu City and Zhangjiagang City,and Taicang City is relatively small,but the average annual population growth rate is second only to Kunshan City;in terms of urban scale distribution,Kunshan City and Zhangjiagang City have relatively scattered urban scale distribution,in particular,Kunshan City has the largest difference in population distribution,and the first town has the strongest monopoly;Changshu City and Taicang City have relatively concentrated urban scale distribution,especially Taicang City has the most balanced population distribution,with the largest number of towns in the middle ranking.Based on the above conclusions,suggestions are made for the subsequent development of small towns in Suzhou county-level cities.