环长株潭城市群人口重心演变路径及其预测分析

Evolution Path and Prediction Analysis of Urban Population Agglomeration Around Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan

根据2011—2020年环长株潭城市群年末常住人口数据,采用GIS重心模型,分析近10年环长株潭城市群人口时空分布特征,利用灰色模型,预测未来5年内人口变化。结果显示:近10年内长沙市人口数量快速增加,株洲市和娄底市缓慢增加,衡阳市人口数量急剧下降,湘潭市、益阳市、岳阳市和常德市人口数量缓慢下降。在空间变化方面,环长株潭城市群2011—2020年人口重心整体向东偏移,其中2012—2015年向东南偏移,且偏移量最大。预测长沙市、株洲市和娄底市未来5年内人口数量会持续增加,衡阳市、湘潭市、益阳市、岳阳市和常德市未来5年内人口数量会逐年下降。此研究为城市群建设及可持续发展提供理论参考。

According to urban permanent population data around Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan from 2011 to 2020,and based on GIS gravity model,the study analyzes the temporal and spatial features of the population in the urban agglomeration around Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan in the past ten years,and predicts the population changes in the next five years by Grey model.The results show that:in recent ten years,the population of Changsha increases rapidly;Zhuzhou and Loudi increase slowly;the population of Hengyang decreases sharply;Xiangtan,Yiyang,Yueyang and Changde decrease slowly.In terms of spatial change,the population center of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration shifts to the east as a whole from 2011 to 2020,and shifts to the southeast from 2012 to 2015,with the largest deviation.In forecast,the population of Changsha,Zhuzhou and Loudi will continue to increase in the next five years,while the population of Hengyang,Xiangtan,Yiyang,Yueyang and Changde will decrease year by year in the next five years.This provides theoretical reference for urban agglomeration and sustainable development.