股票市场开放的价值:基于境外投资者行为特征的分析

The Value of Stock Market Opening: An Analysis Based on Foreign Investment Characteristics

坚定不移扩大高水平对外开放是我国资本市场改革的重要战略导向,然而由此引发的问题是顺周期的跨境资金流动可能会加剧一国金融市场波动。本文通过总结境外投资者的行为特征,发现其在超预期因素冲击中依然坚持价值投资理念,因而当前股票市场对外开放并未引起A股价格“超调”。不过从日本和韩国的开放经验来看,资本市场持续扩大开放过程中存在放大股票市场波动的可能。为此,未来资本市场开放进程中仍要做好效率与安全的平衡。在此基础上,本文提出了相关政策建议。

Steady progress in furthering a high degree of market openness is an important strategic direction of China’s capital market reform. However, a possible concern is that procyclical cross-border capital flows may amplify financial market volatility. This paper summarizes the investment behavioral characteristics of foreign investors. It finds that investors still adhere to value investing despite the effects of overly optimistic expectations. It also concludes that the current opening up of the stock market has not caused an "overshooting" of A share market prices. However, according to the experience of Japan and South Korea, the continuous opening of the capital market may eventually magnify stock market volatility. Consequently, the capital market opening process needs to strike a balance between efficiency and security. This paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations in an effort to achieve this desired result.