传统估价与自动估价准确性的比较分析

Comparison and Analysis of Accuracy of Traditional Valuation and Automated Valuation

准确、可靠的房地产估价对现代经济发展越来越重要,自动估价的快速发展与广泛应用正改变着以传统估价为主的格局,当前对于我国传统估价与自动估价准确性方面的比较研究相对缺乏。本文按照传统估价和自动估价分别选取阿里拍卖平台中天津市和上海市住宅成交案例作为样本,通过评估价格和成交价格的回归分析、指标差异性分析衡量估价的准确性水平。结果表明,所有组别样本的评估价格和成交价格都是高度相关的,上海市样本的估价准确性远远高于天津市,且与通常认可的±10%的标准相近。对于同一个城市而言,传统估价与自动估价的准确性之间并没有发现统计上的显著差异,阿里、京东、工商银行三家询价平台的估价准确性存在一定差异,但工商银行的估值结果稳定性最高。研究结论可以为自动估价与传统估价未来融合发展以及司法拍卖的市场化改革提供参考。

Accurate and reliable property valuation is more and more important to the development of modern economy. The rapid development and wide application of automated valuation is changing the pattern dominated by traditional valuation in the past. However, a comparative study on the accuracy of traditional valuation and automated valuation in our country is relatively scarce. Residential transaction cases in Tianjin and Shanghai on the Ali auction platform were selected as samples, and the accuracy of the valuation was measured by regression analysis and difference analysis. The results show that the appraisal price and transaction price are highly correlated in all groups of samples,and the accuracy of Shanghai sample appraisal which is close to the commonly accepted standard is much higher than that of Tianjin. For the same city, there is no statistically significant difference between the accuracy of traditional valuation and automated valuation. There are certain differences in the valuation accuracy of the three inquiry platforms of Alibaba, JD.com, and ICBC, but ICBC’s valuation results are the most stable. The research conclusions provide a certain reference for the further integration and development of automated valuation and traditional valuation and the market-oriented reform of judicial auction.