科创板半导体上市公司估值研究——以中芯国际为例

Research on the Valuation of Semiconductor Listed Companies——a Case Study of SMIC

我国半导体行业经过多年发展已取得巨大进步,近年来中美贸易关系紧张,华为受美限制等事件一定程度上推动了芯片产业国产替代步伐加快,政策、资本等多因素共振下国内半导体产业进入高速发展期。科创板的开启也使越来越多的半导体选择在科创板上市,但目前市场对科创板半导体企业的估值方法存在不合理性,如用现金流折现模型并未合理处理周期性因素,相对估值的可比公司选择相对随意等问题。本文主要基于国内市场对科创板半导体企业估值存在的问题,提出以基于非线性曲线拟合方法的现金流贴现模型,与通过PCA降维与聚类分析选出相对估值可比公司的方法,并通过案例分析对中芯国际进行估值。为科创板半导体上市公司估值提供借鉴与参考。

China’s semiconductor industry has made great progress after years of development. In recent years, Sino-US trade tensions and Huawei’s restrictions by the United States have accelerated the pace of domestic substitution in the chip industry to a certain extent. Under the resonance of policy, capital and other factors, the domestic semiconductor industry has entered a period of rapid development. The opening of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board also makes more and more semiconductors choose to be listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board. However, there are irrationalities in the valuation methods of semiconductor enterprises in the current market, such as the use of cash flow discount model does not reasonably deal with cyclical factors, and the choice of comparable companies with relative valuation is relatively arbitrary. Based on the problems in the valuation of semiconductor enterprises in the domestic market, this paper proposes a cash flow discount model based on nonlinear curve fitting method, and a method of selecting comparable companies with relative valuation through PCA dimensionality reduction and cluster analysis, and evaluates SMIC through the above methods.