美国国债与全球房地产繁荣——安全资产替代效应

U.S.Treasury and Global Real Estate Boom——Substitution Effect of Safe Assets

金融危机后全球大部分国家的房地产市场经历了快速上涨的阶段,且自新型冠状病毒感染疫情后全球房地产市场价格增速创金融危机后新高。本文认为上述现象的内在成因是房地产资产具有安全属性,外在成因是美国国债有效供给不足。基于安全资产替代效应理论,本文借助2000—2018年包含36个国家的面板数据检验发现,美国国债供给与房地产价格之间存在负向关系,美国国债供给是全球房地产市场价格动态演变的重要影响因素。此外,实证结果表明新兴市场国家比发达国家对美国国债供给的反应更敏感,金融发展水平和金融开放程度低的国家对美国国债供给的反应更为敏感。

Rising house prices have been a feature of the economic recovery in many countries since the global financial crisis.And the global real estate growth rate has hit a new high after COVID-19.A chronic shortage of safe assets creates a fertile ground for real estate booms because real estate assets are quasi-safe assets with safety attributes.This paper examined the relationship between the supply of U.S.Treasury securities and the global real estate boom using data across 36 countries in 2000-2018.It finds that there is a negative relationship between a greater supply of U.S.Treasury and real estate prices,and the supply of U.S.Treasury is an important pricing factor for the global real estate market.Furthermore,emerging economies or economies with lower levels of financial development or financial openness tend to be more susceptible to a greater supply of U.S.Treasury.