全球地缘政治洞察及能源未来走势——专访标普全球公司副董事长丹尼尔·耶金

Global geopolitical insights and future energy trends——Interview with DANIEL Yergin, Vice Chairman of Standard & Poor’s Global

探讨能源危机对全球能源转型、能源政策和能源战略的影响。全球能源转型非常复杂、挑战巨大,能源转型处理不当可能引发更大的能源危机,带来巨大的经济衰退和政治风险。地缘政治影响能源政策目标的演化,并将成为新的能源结构中的一部分。能源转型对发达国家和发展中国家的影响并不相同,混合使用各种能源是部分发展中国家走向能源转型的可行方式。新型冠状病毒感染疫情后的经济复苏需要能源的支撑,但能源安全是能源转型和经济发展的基石。全球化的动力是能源,在新能源体系中,石油和天然气仍将保持优势地位,是维持世界运转的主要能源。

It is discussed that the impact of energy crisis on global energy transition, energy policy and energy strategy. The global energy transition is very complicated and challenging, and its mishandling may lead to an even greater energy crisis, with huge economic recession and political risks. Geopolitics influences the evolution of energy policy objectives and will be part of the new energy mix. The impacts are not same of energy transition on developed countries and of developing countries. The mixed use of all kinds of energy is a feasible way for some developing countries to move towards energy transition. Economic recovery after COVID-19 needs energy support, but energy security is the base of energy transition and economic development. Energy is one of the driving forces of globalization. In the new energy system, oil and natural gas will remain in a dominant position as the main energy to keep the world running.