京津冀城市群双核心结构下的城市最优人口分布

Research on the Optimal Population Distribution of Cities under the Dual-Core Structure of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration

以京津冀城市群人口的空间分布优化为研究目标,计算了京津冀城市群各城市的最优人口规模,并与实际人口规模进行了对比。结果显示:首位城市北京市的最优人口低于实际人口规模,但属于轻微集聚过度,可疏解的人口有限;第二核心城市的天津市最优人口高于实际人口规模,但属于轻度集聚不足,可进一步吸引人口;石家庄、唐山、保定与秦皇岛市的人口属于重度集聚不足,需加强人口的空间集聚;其余城市邯郸、张家口、邢台、沧州、廊坊、衡水和承德市的人口为极度集聚不足,需大力吸引人口。总体看来,京津冀城市群目前人口规模分布整体处于集聚不足状态,今后应以加强各中小城市的人口集聚为政策主要着力方向。

Taking the optimization of the spatial distribution of population in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration as the research objective, the optimal population size of each city in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration is calculated and compared with the actual population size. The study found that the optimal population of Beijing, the first city, is lower than the actual population size, but it is a slight over-concentration, and the population that can be dispersed is limited;The optimal population of Tianjin, the second core city, is higher than the actual population size, but it is a slight agglomeration shortage, which can further attract the population;The population of Shijiazhuang, Tangshan, Baoding, and Qinhuangdao is seriously insufficient, and the spatial agglomeration of the population needs to be strengthened;The population of other cities, such as Handan, Zhangjiakou, Xingtai, Cangzhou, Langfang, Hengshui, and Chengde, is extremely insufficient and needs to be vigorously attracted. In general, the population size distribution of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration is currently in a state of insufficient concentration. In the future, the policy should focus on strengthening the population concentration of small and medium-sized cities.