基于决策树模型的甲磺酸萘莫司他与普通肝素用于连续肾脏替代治疗抗凝的最小成本分析

Nafamostat mesylate and unfractionated heparin for continuous renal replacement therapy anticoagulation: a cost minimization analysis based on decision tree model

目的 评价注射用甲磺酸萘莫司他对比普通肝素用于连续肾脏替代治疗(CRRT)抗凝的卫生经济性。方法 构建决策树模型,测算两种抗凝方式的成本差值。生存分析数据来自于亚洲国家的回顾性文献,成本数据来自于部分地区采购数据及医疗卫生服务项目价格。进行72小时情景分析,同时对关键参数进行敏感性分析。结果 基础分析结果表明,相较于普通肝素组,萘莫司他在144小时的CRRT治疗中总成本差值为5 350.34元,普通肝素更具经济性。72小时情景分析中,普通肝素也更具经济性。单因素敏感性分析显示,一次性使用血液透析滤过器及配套管路成本和血浆抗凝血酶Ⅲ活性(AT-Ⅲ)测定成本等对成本差值的变化有较大影响。概率敏感度分析结果表明模型结构稳定,稳健性较好。当萘莫司他单价降至110.82元/支时,在144小时的CRRT疗程中,萘莫司他和普通肝素的成本均为19 185.37元,成本差值为0。结论 只有当萘莫司他单价降到足够低时,才在CRRT中具有较好的卫生经济性。

Objective To evaluate the economics of nafamostat mesylate compared with unfractionated heparin for continuous renal replacement therapy anticoagulation. Methods A decision tree model was constructed to calculate the cost difference between the two anticoagulation methods. Survival analysis data comes from retrospective literature in Asian countries. The cost data comes from procurement data and the prices of medical and health services in some regions. A 72-hour scenario analysis is performed and a sensitivity analysis is performed on key parameters. Results The basic analysis results showed that compared with the unfractionated heparin group, the total cost difference of nafamostat in the 144-hour CRRT treatment was 5 350.34 yuan, and the unfractionated heparin was more economical. In the 72-hour scenario analysis, unfractionated heparin is also more economical. Univariate sensitivity analysis showed that the cost of single-use hemodialysis filters and supporting pipelines and the cost of plasma antithrombin Ⅲ activity(AT-Ⅲ)measurement had a greater impact on the change of the cost difference. The results of probability sensitivity analysis show that the model structure is stable and robust. When the unit price of nafamostat is about 110.82 yuan/piece, the cost of nafamostat and unfractionated heparin in 144-hour CRRT treatment is both 19 185.37 yuan, and the cost difference is 0.Conclusion When the unit price of nafamostat mesylate drops to a sufficiently low level, it could have an advantageous health economy.