计及多主体与不确定性的农村虚拟能源系统两阶段模式设计

Two-Stage Mode Design for Rural Virtual Energy System Considering Multi-agent and Uncertainty

为了解决农村能源利用率低、能源供应可靠性差、环境污染严重的问题,设计了计及不确定性的农村虚拟能源系统两阶段模式。首先,从农村能源供给与农村能源需求的特性出发,设计考虑农村能源特性的虚拟能源系统框架;其次,分析农村虚拟能源系统的参与主体,设计多主体参与的农村虚拟能源系统投资模式,并从政府、企业、用户等主体出发,构建评估体系,优选农村虚拟能源系统的投资模式;然后,引入两阶段鲁棒优化模型刻画农村虚拟能源系统中负荷、出力及市场价格的不确定性,构建了农村虚拟能源系统的运营模式;最后,以中国北方某农村为例进行算例分析,算例结果表明所提虚拟能源系统两阶段运营模式具有实用性与科学性。

In order to solve the problems of rural energy efficiency, poor reliability of energy supply, and serious environmental pollution, this paper carries out a two-stage mode design for rural virtual energy systems that takes into account the uncertainty. First, starting from the characteristics of rural energy supply and rural energy demand, a virtual energy system framework that considers rural energy characteristics is designed. Secondly, by analyzing the participants of rural virtual energy systems, a multi-participating rural virtual energy system investment mode is designed;and starting from the government, enterprises, users and other subjects, an evaluation system is built to optimize the investment mode of rural virtual energy systems. Then, a two-stage robust optimization model is introduced to describe the uncertainty of the load, output and market price of the rural virtual energy system, and the operation mode of the rural virtual energy system is constructed. Finally, a calculation example is taken as an example in a rural area in northern China. The results of the calculation example show that the two-stage operation mode of the virtual energy system proposed in this paper is practical and scientific.