基于SSPs路径下植被气候生产潜力的预测——以陕甘宁为例

Prediction of Climatic Productivity of Vegetation Based on SSPs Path——A Case Study of Shaanxi,Gansu and Ningxia

陕甘宁三省区自然环境复杂多样,生态环境脆弱,对气候变化响应敏感。在全球气候变化背景下,植被气候生产潜力的研究对该地区农林牧业的生产布局以及生态系统管理等方面起到积极作用。本文选取陕西、甘肃以及宁夏三省区BCC-CSM2-MR模式下SSP126、SSP245和SSP585三种路径2025-2100年气温和降水的模拟数据,运用Thornthwaite Memorial模型计算研究区未来植被气候生产潜力的变化特征及驱动机制。结果表明:2025-2100年甘肃河西走廊大部分地区保持历史时期向“暖湿型”发展的气候特点,与基准期相比,植被气候生产潜力增量分别集中在10%~40%(SSP126)、10%~30%(SSP245)、10%~56.1%(SSP585)。陕西省在SSP126路径下陕北地区植被气候生产潜力呈下降趋势,在SSP245和SSP585路径下全省植被气候生产潜力均呈增加趋势,且陕北地区增加趋势最强。陕西省在SSP126和SSP245路径下大部分地区相对基准期增加了5%~10%,在SSP585路径下增加了10%~20%。宁夏回族自治区在SSP126路径下气候向“暖干型”发展,全区植被气候生产潜力呈下降趋势,与此相反的是SSP245和SSP585路径下全区植被气候生产潜力显著增加。SSP585路径下全区植被气候生产潜力距平增加了10%~30%,SSP126和SSP245路径下距平增加了0%~20%。从驱动机制来看,陕甘宁三省区植被气候生产潜力的驱动类型有两种,分别是“降水驱动型”和“气温降水驱动型”。研究区植被气候生产潜力均受降水驱动,且降水是植被气候生产潜力的主要驱动力。

The natural environment of the three provinces and regions of Shaanxi,Gansu and Ningxia is complex and diverse.The ecological environment is fragile,and is sensitive to climate change.In the background of global climate change,the study on the climate production potential of vegetation plays a positive role in the production distribution and ecosystem management of agriculture,forestry and animal husbandry in this region.This paper selects the simulated data of temperature and precipitation of SSP126,SSP245 and SSP585 in the BCC-CSM2-MR model of Shaanxi,Gansu and Ningxia from 2025 to 2100,and uses the Thornthwaite Memorial model to calculate the change characteristics and driving mechanism of the future vegetation climate production potential in the study area.The results show that most areas of Hexi Corridor in Gansu Province maintain the climatic characteristics of"warm and humid"development in the historical period from 2025 to 2100.Compared to the base period,the increment of vegetation climatic productivity potential was concentrated in 10%~40%(SSP126),10%~30%(SSP245)and 10%~56.1%(SSP585),respectively.The vegetation climate production potential in northern Shaanxi shows a downward trend under the SSP126 path,while the vegetation climate production potential in Shaanxi shows an increasing trend under the SSP245 and SSP585 paths,and the increasing trend is the strongest in northern Shaanxi.In Shaanxi Province,compared with the base period in most areas under the SSP126 and SSP245 paths increased by 5%~10%,and that under the SSP585 path increased by 10%~20%.The climate of Ningxia Hui Autonomous region develops to"warm and dry type"under SSP126 path,and the vegetation climate production potential in Ningxia Hui Autonomous region shows a downward trend.On the contrary,the climatic production potential of vegetation in Ningxia Hui Autonomous region increases significantly under SSP245 and SSP585 path.The anomaly of vegetation climate production potential in the whole region increased by 10%~30%under the SSP585 path and 0~20%under the SSP245 path.From the point of view of the driving mechanism,there are two driving types of vegetation climate production potential in the three provinces of Shaanxi,Gansu and Ningxia,which are"precipitation-driven"and"temperature-precipitation-driven".The vegetation climate production potential in the study area is driven by precipitation,which is the main driving force of vegetation climate production potential.