中国资本账户开放的增长效应测算——增长效应与增长动力的结构性适配

Measurement of the Growth Effect of Financial Openness:Structural Match Between Economic Growth Effect and Power

随着中国资本账户开放进程不断推进,其增长效应引发大量学术讨论,但未获得稳健的理论与现实支撑。从理论上分析资本账户开放的直接、间接影响路径与东道国经济增长动力之间的映射关系,增长效应与增长动力的结构性适配是关键所在。基于此,构建中介效应系统进行实证分析,考察中国的资本账户开放、规模扩张、追赶型技术进步与经济增长之间的动态关系。研究结果表明:中国的资本流入表现出对经济规模扩张、追赶型技术进步的显著推动作用,而资本流出的作用则不显著;当前,中国资本账户开放政策具备持续3年的短期增长效应,而追赶型技术进步增长红利的持续释放会对冲规模扩张的不利影响,于第6年开始保持对经济增长的正向影响。因此,结构化、周期化、叠加性的资本账户开放政策能够充分适配增长效应和增长动力。

The opening of Chinese capital market has raised numerous discusses,however,without a common theoretical result either robust empirical evidence.By connecting development growth power of economic scale accumulation and advantage of backwardness with direct and indirect growth effect of financial openness,this paper considered the core mechanism issue of growth effect of financial openness is mainly about the matching with domestic economic growth power.Embedding our framework into an inter-media model,this paper empirically detects dynamic relationship between financial openness,economic scale,innovation and economic growth.Empirical results suggest that:the direct growth effect of China’s capital inflows holds positive effect upon the growth of economic scale as well as innovation,while outflow does not.China’s financial openness policy can foster a short-term growth wave for 3 years,and keep a steady positive growth effect from 6th year.So,we suggest a political package of direct growth effect of financial openness for stabilizing growth,indirect growth effect and raising innovation capability for guaranteeing future development,and industrial policy as guidance.